How to lose weight and keep it off, from your own numbers
The evidence on losing weight and keeping it off, a worked plan from one set of numbers, and where researchers still disagree.
Last reviewed October 15, 2026
To lose weight, eat fewer calories than you burn, in a way you can keep up for years: diets with very different mixes of carbs and fat give similar results over 1 to 2 years.[1, 2] A 2026 US guideline targets at least 5% to 10% of your weight.[3] Keeping it off is linked with regular weigh-ins, and the same guideline recommends long-term support.[9, 3]
Key takeaways
- Diets with very different mixes of carbs, fat and protein give similar weight loss over 1 to 2 years.[1, 2]
- A 2026 US heart and metabolic health guideline recommends losing at least 5% to 10% of starting weight.[3]
- Protein, sleep and activity each help in measured ways: higher protein spared a little fat-free mass, more sleep cut intake in one trial, and more activity is linked with keeping weight off.[5, 6, 7]
- Weight loss usually levels off at about 6 months, and appetite rises as weight comes off.[8, 9]
- Keeping it off is possible: in one long trial, half of the adults with type 2 diabetes in an intensive program still had at least 5% off after 8 years.[10]
Start from your own numbers
The 2026 guideline from the American Heart Association, the American College of Cardiology and others targets at least 5% to 10% of starting weight.[3] An NIH page, drawing on the older 2013 US obesity guideline, suggests reaching 5% to 10% within 6 months.[4] For someone who weighs 200 pounds, 5% is 10 pounds.[11]
Modest loss already matters for health. The 2013 US obesity guideline found that a 5% loss lowered blood pressure by about 3 and 2 mm Hg (top and bottom number) on average.[12] People at risk for type 2 diabetes may prevent or delay it by losing at least 5% to 7%.[13] For people with overweight or obesity, losing at least 3% to 5% may reduce fat in the liver.[13]
To see where you start, the BMI calculator gives your body mass index, and BMI explained covers who it is wrong for. Your waist-to-height ratio and body fat percentage show what BMI misses.
Low-carb, low-fat and the rest: what the trials show
In one 2-year trial, 811 adults were put on four diets with very different amounts of fat, protein and carbs.[1] All four were set 750 calories a day below what each person burned.[1] Loss was similar whatever the mix, 2.9 to 3.6 kg at 2 years across the comparisons.[1]
A later trial of 609 adults aged 18 to 50 compared a healthy low-fat diet with a healthy low-carb diet for a year.[14] Weight loss was 5.3 kg and 6.0 kg, not a significant difference.[14] Neither diet asked people to count calories, yet both groups reported eating about 500 to 600 calories a day less.[14]
A review of 48 trials of named diets reached the same place: the differences between diets were small.[2] Its authors back any diet a person will stick to.[2] The 2026 US guideline puts low-fat and low-carb plans at a modest loss of roughly 4 kg, in a review of 121 trials.[3] For the mechanics, read what a calorie deficit is and how many calories to eat to lose weight.
Note
Disputed: why people gain weight
Researchers disagree about cause. One camp argues that diets high in fast-digesting carbs (a high glycemic load) drive fat storage through hormones such as insulin, and that this pushes the body to take in more energy than it burns.[15] Another argues the brain sets intake, and that this view is a narrower version of theirs.[16] The first camp calls for research to compare the two.[15] In head-to-head trials, low-carb and low-fat diets give similar long-term loss.[14, 2]
A plan from one set of numbers
Dalia's app offers three paces, 0.5, 1 or 1.5 pounds a week, which it turns into a cut of 250, 500 or 750 calories a day. Dalia's app never sets a daily target below 1,200 calories.
Worked example
From a starting weight to a first goal
Take a 45-year-old man who is 5 ft 10 in (177.8 cm), weighs 210 lb (95.3 kg) and is moderately active (3 to 4 workouts a week). The calorie steps use the same constants and rounding as the Dalia app.
First goal, 5% to 10% of starting weight
210 × 0.05 to 210 × 0.10
10.5 to 21 lb
Resting burn (Mifflin-St Jeor, men)
10 × 95.25 + 6.25 × 177.8 − 5 × 45 + 5
1,844 cal
Daily burn (moderately active)
1,843.8 × 1.55
2,858 cal
Target for 1 lb a week
2,857.9 − 500
2,358 cal
Weeks to 190 lb on the 3,500-calorie rule
20 ÷ 1
20 weeks
Same cut on a model-based rule of thumb for adults with overweight (10 cal a day per lb, half in a year)
500 ÷ 10 = 50 lb in the end; half of that
About 25 lb in year one
His first goal
20 lb, about 10%, with 2,358 calories a day as the starting target
Try your own numbers in the calorie deficit calculator. Before choosing the fastest pace, read how fast you can safely lose weight.
What to eat: diet quality matters for how much you eat
What you eat changes how much you eat. In a 4-week ward study, 20 adults were offered ultra-processed meals for 2 weeks and unprocessed meals for 2 weeks, eating as much as they liked.[19] They ate about 508 calories a day more on the ultra-processed diet and gained 0.9 kg, while they lost 0.9 kg on the unprocessed one.[19] It was a small, short study.
Water-rich food helped in one trial. In a year-long trial of 97 women with obesity, adding fruit and vegetables to a lower-fat diet gave more loss among those who finished, 7.9 kg against 6.4 kg, with less hunger.[20] Neither group had a calorie goal.[20] The 2025–2030 Dietary Guidelines say to prioritize fiber-rich whole grains, and the advisory committee behind them listed fiber as underconsumed in the US.[21, 22]
Protein
Protein helps a little while you cut. Across 24 trials, people on higher-protein diets with the same calories kept about 0.43 kg more fat-free mass.[5] The authors call the benefits modest.[5] Higher-protein meals make people feel a little fuller, but did not cut how much they ate at the next meal.[23]
The recommended dietary allowance (RDA) for adults, 0.8 g per kg of body weight a day, was set to prevent deficiency, not to keep the most muscle.[22] The 2025–2030 Dietary Guidelines set higher protein goals, 1.2 to 1.6 g per kg a day, adjusted to your calorie needs.[21] The report behind them notes that most of the 30 trials in its review of higher-protein diets were in adults with overweight or obesity who were cutting calories.[22]
Dalia's targets, protein included, can be changed: tell the coach the number you want. Our guide to how much protein you need goes deeper.
Fasting and meal timing
Time-restricted eating has not beaten an ordinary daily cut in trials. In a 12-week trial of 116 adults, eating only from noon to 8 pm was no better than three meals a day.[24] In a year-long trial of 139 adults on the same calorie targets, adding an 8-hour window did not add a significant loss.[25] A 2025 review of 99 trials found some indication that fasting diets give similar results to a daily cut.[26]
Activity and keeping weight off
Exercise on its own produces modest loss. The American College of Sports Medicine says 150 to 250 minutes a week of moderate activity gives only modest loss.[7] More than 250 minutes a week has been linked to meaningful loss, and, in observational studies, to better maintenance after loss.[7]
Strength training does not add to weight loss, but it may build fat-free mass and help shed fat.[7] Across diet trials, exercise mattered more at 12 months than at 6.[2] For keeping muscle while you lose, see losing fat without losing muscle.
Sleep changes what you lose and how much you eat
Experts recommend 7 to 9 hours of sleep a night for adults 18 to 64.[27] In a 2-week study of 10 adults on the same diet, 5.5 hours in bed instead of 8.5 cut the share of weight lost as fat by 55% and raised the loss of fat-free mass by 60%.[28]
In 80 adults with overweight who slept less than 6.5 hours, a single counseling session added about 1.2 hours of sleep a night.[6] They ate about 270 calories a day less than the control group, with no diet advice.[6]
Tracking: what the evidence says about logging and weighing
Self-monitoring, keeping track of food, activity or weight, is the core of behavioral weight loss programs.[29] A review of 22 studies found it was consistently linked with weight loss, though the evidence was weak.[29] For weighing, adding it to a program helped by 1.7 kg on average, while advice to weigh alone showed no clear effect in the one trial that tested it.[30]
The habits linked with long-term success include frequent self-monitoring and self-weighing.[9] Our guides cover how to read the scale, calorie tracking apps and how accurate photo calorie estimates are.
Why weight loss slows down
Most programs follow the same curve: fast early loss, a plateau, then slow regain.[9] In a review of 80 trials, weight leveled off at about 6 months.[8] By one estimate, each kilogram lost lowers daily burn by about 20 to 30 calories and raises appetite by about 100.[9] Our guide to why the scale gets stuck works through one example.
How to keep it off
Regain is common, but on average people keep some weight off. In 29 US studies, people kept off more than 3 kg on average 5 years after a structured program.[31] In an 8-year trial in adults with type 2 diabetes, 50.3% of the intensive lifestyle group still had at least 5% off.[10]
About 20% of people with overweight keep off at least 10% of their weight for a year or more.[32] People in a US registry of successful losers report about an hour of activity a day, a low-calorie, low-fat diet, regular breakfast, weighing themselves and eating the same way on weekends.[32] These are habits members report about themselves, so they show what is possible, not proof of what works.
- Keep support going. The 2026 US guideline recommends long-term weight management programs, with more physical activity, to keep lost weight off.[3]
- Keep weighing. In 314 adults who had recently lost weight, a program built on daily weighing cut the share who regained 2.3 kg or more.[33]
- Expect the effort to stay. Holding off regain took about 300 to 500 calories a day of ongoing effort against the slower burn and higher appetite, in one model of two example women.[9]
When to talk to a clinician
Frequently asked questions
Plan for maintenance as its own phase. A 2026 US guideline recommends long-term weight management programs that stress physical activity, and keeping up regular weighing helped people avoid regain in a trial. In observational studies, more than 250 minutes a week of activity is linked with better maintenance. By one estimate, appetite rises as weight comes off, so the effort does not end when the diet does.
Yes. In a year-long trial, people on healthy low-fat or low-carb diets with no calorie instructions still reported eating about 500 to 600 calories a day less and lost about 5 to 6 kg. In another trial, women who added fruit and vegetables with no calorie goal also lost weight. Tracking food is linked with more loss, though the evidence is weak.
References & further reading
- 1.Comparison of weight-loss diets with different compositions of fat, protein, and carbohydrates, New England Journal of Medicine (Sacks et al.), 2009
- 2.Comparison of weight loss among named diet programs in overweight and obese adults: a meta-analysis, JAMA (Johnston et al.), 2014
- 3.2026 AHA/ACC/ADA/ASN guideline for the prevention, detection, evaluation, and management of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome, Journal of the American College of Cardiology (Ndumele et al.), 2026
- 4.Choosing a safe and successful weight-loss program, NIDDK (NIH)
- 5.Effects of energy-restricted high-protein, low-fat compared with standard-protein, low-fat diets: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials, American Journal of Clinical Nutrition (Wycherley et al.), 2012
- 6.Effect of sleep extension on objectively assessed energy intake among adults with overweight in real-life settings: a randomized clinical trial, JAMA Internal Medicine (Tasali et al.), 2022
- 7.American College of Sports Medicine position stand: appropriate physical activity intervention strategies for weight loss and prevention of weight regain for adults, Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise (Donnelly et al.), 2009
- 8.Weight-loss outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis of weight-loss clinical trials with a minimum 1-year follow-up, Journal of the American Dietetic Association (Franz et al.), 2007
- 9.Maintenance of lost weight and long-term management of obesity, Medical Clinics of North America (Hall and Kahan), 2018
- 10.Eight-year weight losses with an intensive lifestyle intervention: the Look AHEAD study, Obesity (Look AHEAD Research Group), 2014
- 11.Steps for losing weight, CDC
- 12.2013 AHA/ACC/TOS guideline for the management of overweight and obesity in adults, Circulation (Jensen et al.), 2014
- 13.Health risks of overweight and obesity, NIDDK (NIH)
- 14.Effect of low-fat vs low-carbohydrate diet on 12-month weight loss in overweight adults: the DIETFITS randomized clinical trial, JAMA (Gardner et al.), 2018
- 15.The carbohydrate-insulin model: a physiological perspective on the obesity pandemic, American Journal of Clinical Nutrition (Ludwig et al.), 2021
- 16.The energy balance model of obesity: beyond calories in, calories out, American Journal of Clinical Nutrition (Hall et al.), 2022
- 17.Can a weight loss of one pound a week be achieved with a 3500-kcal deficit?, International Journal of Obesity (Thomas et al.), 2013
- 18.Quantification of the effect of energy imbalance on bodyweight, The Lancet (Hall et al.), 2011
- 19.Ultra-processed diets cause excess calorie intake and weight gain: an inpatient randomized controlled trial of ad libitum food intake, Cell Metabolism (Hall et al.), 2019
- 20.Dietary energy density in the treatment of obesity: a year-long trial comparing 2 weight-loss diets, American Journal of Clinical Nutrition (Ello-Martin et al.), 2007
- 21.Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2025-2030, USDA and HHS, 2026
- 22.The scientific foundation for the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2025-2030, USDA and HHS, 2026
- 23.The role of protein in weight loss and maintenance, American Journal of Clinical Nutrition (Leidy et al.), 2015
- 24.Effects of time-restricted eating on weight loss and other metabolic parameters in women and men with overweight and obesity: the TREAT randomized clinical trial, JAMA Internal Medicine (Lowe et al.), 2020
- 25.Calorie restriction with or without time-restricted eating in weight loss, New England Journal of Medicine (Liu et al.), 2022
- 26.Intermittent fasting strategies and their effects on body weight and other cardiometabolic risk factors: systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomised clinical trials, BMJ (Semnani-Azad et al.), 2025
- 27.Factors affecting weight and health, NIDDK (NIH)
- 28.Insufficient sleep undermines dietary efforts to reduce adiposity, Annals of Internal Medicine (Nedeltcheva et al.), 2010
- 29.Self-monitoring in weight loss: a systematic review of the literature, Journal of the American Dietetic Association (Burke et al.), 2011
- 30.Is self-weighing an effective tool for weight loss: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis, International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity (Madigan et al.), 2015
- 31.Long-term weight-loss maintenance: a meta-analysis of US studies, American Journal of Clinical Nutrition (Anderson et al.), 2001
- 32.Long-term weight loss maintenance, American Journal of Clinical Nutrition (Wing and Phelan), 2005
- 33.A self-regulation program for maintenance of weight loss, New England Journal of Medicine (Wing et al.), 2006
- 34.Overweight and pregnant, NHS
- 35.Eating disorders, National Institute of Mental Health
- 36.Low blood glucose (hypoglycemia), NIDDK (NIH)
- 37.Overweight and obesity management (NG246): physical activity and diet, NICE, 2025
Eashan Vagish
Founder, Dalia Health
Eashan Vagish is the founder of Dalia Health, where he works on making heart and metabolic health easier to understand and track. He writes these guides to answer the health questions people actually ask, in plain language, with links to the research behind every claim.
Medical disclaimer: This article is for general educational purposes only and is not medical advice. It is not a substitute for diagnosis or treatment from a qualified healthcare professional. Always talk to your doctor about your individual health, and seek immediate care for any urgent symptoms.
How we write, source and correct these guides: our editorial policy. Spot an error? Email info@daliahealth.com.
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